The best calls came from the people who expected a niche product. Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley), Gene Munster (Deepwater, but only for 2024) and Tom Narayan (RBC) came closest. ARK, Gary Black, Piper's Alexander Potter and Dan Ives's 2020 call missed by roughly 5–18×.
Sales peaked in 2024, the truck's first full year, and fell from there. Below are the predictions from the 2019 unveil, the years in between, and the November 2023 delivery launch. For JPMorgan, I couldn't find a Cybertruck-specific forecast from Ryan Brinkman; his Tesla notes during this period focused on valuation.
What actually sold
Tesla doesn't report Cybertruck sales separately, so these are mainly Cox Automotive's US estimates.
2023
A few dozen
No figure published. First 10 trucks delivered Nov 30 (Jalopnik estimate).
2024 · peak year
38,965
Troy Teslike: 30,833. Car and Driver: 24,300.
2025
20,237
Down 48.1%. Q4 hit hardest after the $7,500 EV credit ended Sep 30.
2026 so far
3,519 Q1
Lowest quarter yet. Electrek estimates 7–8k for Q3 (~28–32k/yr pace).
Reservation conversion
~6%
59,506 delivered Q4 2023–Q3 2025 (incl. Canada) vs. 1M+ reservations.
The grades
Every prediction, in the order it was made.
✅ Hit
Mixed
❌ Miss
Not graded
| # | Analyst | Prediction | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 unveil (Nov–Dec 2019) | ||||
| 1 | Dan IvesWedbushNov 2019 | The design "will be a hit with the company's fanatic EV installed base globally"; looked "more like a stealth bomber than a pickup truck." Business Insider ↗ | A qualitative call with no number attached. | Not graded |
| 2 | Jeffrey OsborneCowenNov 2019 | Bearish: the reveal "will likely disappoint current pickup truck owners," and it would remain "a niche and not a mainstream product." Autoblog ↗ | It stayed niche: 39k in its best year, ~2% of Tesla's deliveries. | ✅ Hit |
| 3 | Adam JonasMorgan StanleyDec 2019 | Tesla shares could rise to as much as $500 if the Cybertruck succeeds and China sales pick up. Bloomberg ↗ | A conditional share-price call, not a Cybertruck volume forecast. | Not graded |
| 4 | Alexander PotterPiper JaffrayNov 2019 | 200,000 Cybertrucks per year starting in 2023. Electrek ↗ | About 5× the best year (38,965 in 2024). | ❌ Miss |
| 5 | Gene MunsterLoup VenturesAug 2019 | The truck would be only about 5% of Tesla's output. After a 2020 contractor survey he said that estimate wasn't accurate. Inverse ↗ | 5% was arguably too high: 39k was ~2% of Tesla's 2024 deliveries. Raising his view went the wrong way. | ❌ Miss |
| In between (2020–mid 2023) | ||||
| 6 | Dan IvesWedbushJun 2020 | 175,000–200,000 deliveries in the first full year of production; preorders "north of 650k." InsideEVs ↗ | 38,965 in the first full year: 4.5–5× too high. | ❌ Miss |
| 7 | Adam JonasMorgan Stanley2021 | Volumes start in 2022 at 15k units, ramping to 283k a year by 2030 at ~$65k average price. Teslarati ↗ | Nothing shipped until late 2023. 283k by 2030 looks far off with sales running at ~28–32k a year. | ❌ Miss |
| 8 | Adam JonasMorgan StanleyMar 2023 | "More likely be an enthusiast/cult car with far more limited volume," closer to 50,000 units a year. Jalopnik ↗ | The best call. Sales peaked at 39k, then fell to about 20k. | ✅ Hit |
| 9 | Sam KorusARK InvestMay 2023 | "Early Google Trends data suggest that the Cybertruck could be as mainstream as the Tesla Model Y." Teslarati ↗ | Model Y sold an estimated 357,500 in 2025, about 18× the Cybertruck. | ❌ Miss |
| 10 | Cathie WoodARK Invest2023 | "The sleeper that could destroy the pricing structure of light duty trucks"; would expand the truck market the way the Model 3 expanded its category. Benzinga ↗ | Launched at $61k–$100k and never had real volume. | ❌ Miss |
| 11 | Gary BlackFuture FundJul 2023 | Deliveries would "far exceed" consensus of 91k in 2024 and 160k in 2025; Tesla was planning for 375k a year. Benzinga ↗ | Sales came in about 2–8× below that consensus. | ❌ Miss |
| Delivery launch (Nov 30, 2023) | ||||
| 12 | Dan IvesWedbushNov 2023 | 2,000–3,000 units in Q4 2023, 10,000 per quarter by H1 2024, 250k a year by 2025. Wouldn't "significantly move the financial needle" in 2024. Benzinga ↗ |
|
❌ Miss |
| 13 | Gene MunsterDeepwaterNov 2023 – Jan 2024 | Pre-event: 35k in 2024, 175k a year after. After pricing: the waiting list would "decline to sub 500k over the next six months." Jan 2024: 35k / 125k / 250k for 2024 / 2025 / 2026. Benzinga ↗ |
|
Mixed |
| 14 | Adam JonasMorgan StanleyNov 2023 | 50 deliveries in 2023, 30k in 2024, 78k in 2025. Under 5% of Tesla's revenue and close to 0% of profit by 2025. TipRanks ↗ |
|
Mixed |
| 15 | Tom NarayanRBCDec 2023 | 50,000 units delivered in 2024. Reservation conversion would be "low, likely under 20%." Benzinga ↗ |
|
Mixed |
| 16 | Mark DelaneyGoldman SachsDec 2023 | No unit number. Impressed by the specs, but the key question was "how fast it ramps up," given the high price and manufacturability. TipRanks ↗ | The ramp, price and manufacturability were exactly the problems. | ✅ Hit |
| 17 | Philippe HouchoisJefferiesNov 2023 | The most bearish call: cancelling the Cybertruck could be positive for Tesla shares; an "off mission" product. Benzinga ↗ | Arguably proven right. | ✅ Hit |
| — | Wall Street consensusMid 2023 | 94,000 deliveries in 2024 and 160,000 in 2025. | About 2.4× and 8× too high. | ❌ Miss |
Best calls & big misses
Expecting a niche product was the winning bet.
Best calls
- Adam Jonas (Mar 2023): "cult car," ~50k a year.
- Gene Munster: 35k in 2024, within ~10%.
- Tom Narayan: under 20% of reservations would convert.
- Jeffrey Osborne (2019): "a niche and not a mainstream product."
- Philippe Houchois: "off mission."
- Mark Delaney: flagged the ramp, price and manufacturability.
Big misses
- Sam Korus: "as mainstream as Model Y" (~18× off).
- Dan Ives (Nov 2023): 250k a year by 2025 (12× off).
- Gary Black: would "far exceed" a consensus that was itself 2–8× too high.
- Alexander Potter (2019): 200k a year from 2023 (~5× off).
- Dan Ives (2020): 175–200k in year one (4.5–5× off).
- Cathie Wood: would "destroy the pricing structure" of light trucks.
Caveats
- Cox's figures are estimates from registration data and cover the US only. International sales probably added about 2,000 in 2025. Some trackers think Cox overstated 2024.
- The end of the federal EV tax credit made 2025–2026 sales worse for every EV. Even so, the analysts' 2025 forecasts were well above pre-credit sales.
- A cheaper AWD Cybertruck started deliveries around mid-2026, so the late-2026 numbers could rise somewhat.
Sales sources
Prediction sources are linked in each table row.